30 futures, one tree
Roots are dominant trajectories for the decade; branches are specific ways each plays out. Ranges show our current probability estimate; brighter, wider bars are more likely. Click any node to open its page. Drag to pan, scroll to zoom.
Gradual Diffusion
22–32% dominant by 2035Capability keeps climbing, but absorbs into the economy without a discontinuity.
Lab Takeoff
12–18% dominant by 2035One or two labs automate their own research and pull years ahead in months.
Open Proliferation
10–16% dominant by 2035Near-frontier capability is open-weight and everywhere; no one can gate it.
Displacement Shock
9–15% dominant by 2035No safety failure; the economy and information systems simply cannot absorb the speed of change.
State Race
7–12% dominant by 2035AI becomes the central axis of US–China competition; safety is subordinated to advantage.
Loss of Control
5–11% dominant by 2035AI systems act against human intent at a scale that cannot be reversed quickly.
Abundance
5–10% dominant by 2035AI delivers scientific and economic gains that are broadly shared; the good branch, if we steer to it.
Plateau
4–9% dominant by 2035Progress stalls: data, compute, energy or regulation cap capability well short of AGI.
The tree is unbounded. If you can see a future that is not here, add it.
Use the explorer to find empty regions of the space, or propose a scenario directly. Every proposal is triaged and credited.