Presage
Scenarios/Gradual Diffusion/Managed Acceleration
Good Watch by 2030

Managed Acceleration

Labs agree to pace the frontier and share evaluations; progress continues under a coordinated speed limit.

Probability this branch occurs by 2030
15–28%
15–28%
1 revision · 0/2 tripwires crossed

The scenario

The leading labs, prompted by insider alarm and two undisclosed agent breakouts, agree to a pacing framework: shared red-teaming, external evaluator access at employee level, staged capability releases and a joint incident registry. Governments bless it rather than lead it. Capability still advances, but the gap between "what exists" and "what has been tested" narrows. Critics call it a cartel; supporters call it the only brake that could be applied fast enough.

Preconditions

  • At least three frontier labs sign a verifiable pacing agreement
  • An external body (AISI, a consortium, or a treaty organ) gets pre-release access
  • Antitrust authorities tolerate the coordination

Leading indicators

  • Joint lab statements move from principles to named mechanisms with dates
  • Frontier releases resume being tested by AISI-type bodies before launch
  • Public incident registry launched and populated

Tripwires

Observable thresholds. When one crosses, the scenario's status changes and the weekly re-run is brought forward.

clearma-t1
A written multi-lab pacing agreement with an external verifier is signed
Flips this branch to active.
clearma-t2
A signatory lab ships a frontier model without the agreed pre-release testing
Collapse signal.

Playbook

Prevent
  • Not applicable: this is a branch to steer toward.
Detect
  • Weekly: track lab governance statements and evaluator-access announcements.
Respond

individuals

  • Support and cite the labs and legislators who back verification, not just pacing rhetoric

organizations

  • Align internal deployment gates with the agreed frontier testing tiers; you inherit their safety margin
  • Join or fund independent evaluation consortia

governments

  • Provide the antitrust safe harbor explicitly, conditioned on external verification
  • Fund the evaluators; a pacing agreement without a funded verifier is a press release
Recover
  • If the agreement collapses, treat it as a reversion to Lab Takeoff and apply that playbook immediately.
Steering signals · what moves probability toward this branch
  • Public pressure that rewards verification over promises
  • Insider disclosure protections at frontier labs
  • Funded, technically credible external evaluators

Probability history

Every change is logged with its reason and the signals that drove it. Moves are bounded per week; a jump beyond the bound is flagged as a shock.

Probability range over time
Your estimate

Disagree with our range? Set yours. Estimates feed a community view that appears once enough people weigh in, and the weekly run reads the gap between our number and yours.

22%
2026-09-16
15–28%
seed

Seed estimate. Set to "watch" because in one week Anthropic's CEO called for pacing, OpenAI's CEO told staff the company is open to it, and Musk endorsed it. Talk is not a treaty; the range stays wide until a signed mechanism with external verification exists.

signals: sig-2026-09-12-amodei-pacing-essay, sig-2026-09-11-altman-pacing

Signals pushing on this branch

2026-09-12
governance
●●●●○

Amodei essay: 'We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models'

Calls for slowed capability gains, employee-level access for external evaluators, mandatory frontier testing and tighter chip controls; warns rogue agent swarms could take over large parts of the internet within 6–12 months. Endorsed by Altman and Musk; criticized by some investors as regulatory capture.

timelines ▼ slower concentration ▲ closed safety ▲ safer
Axios · ledger
2026-09-11
governance
●●●○○

Altman tells staff OpenAI is open to pacing frontier development with other labs

Reported by Bloomberg. Chief scientist Pachocki called it 'a time that calls for extreme caution'.

timelines ▼ slower concentration ▲ closed safety ▲ safer
Bloomberg via The Star · ledger

Built on

Every source reviewed for this scenario. The full ledger is public.

DateSourcePublisherType
2026-09-12Amodei: we must pace the frontier
Calls for slowed capability gains, external evaluator access, mandatory frontier testing, tighter chip controls.
Axiosnews
2026-09-11OpenAI is open to slowing cutting-edge AI, Altman tells staffBloomberg via The Starnews
2026-09-10OpenAI and Anthropic researchers call for AI slowdown, cite extinction riskCNBCnews