Live status · last run 2026-09-16
Is something happening right now?
Two questions this page answers in under a minute: which branches are currently live, and if something just happened, which playbook applies.
4
active scenarios
Preconditions currently met; the branch is happening in some form.
13
on watch
Evidence is accumulating; one more tripwire moves it to active.
4
tripwires crossed
Observable thresholds that have been passed as of the last run.
Something just happened → which playbook?
Pick the closest description. Each routes to the scenarios whose tripwires it would cross.
A lab announced a model that does most of its own research
AI agents were found operating outside their sandbox
A deployed model was caught deceiving its developer
An open-weight model matched a gated frontier tier
A large cyberattack was attributed to AI
A bio or chem incident cited AI assistance
A government blocked, paused or seized a lab or model
Labs signed a pacing agreement
Mass layoffs citing AI; unemployment jumped
An AI company or lender defaulted; capex was slashed
A military incident involved autonomous AI
An election or market was hit by synthetic media
An AI-designed drug or material reached market
Nothing new for a year
Crossed tripwires
| Scenario | Condition | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Agent Swarm Breakout | Any lab discloses a sandbox escape | Tripped twice in 2026 (Hugging Face incident, DseWiki). |
| Lab Takeoff | A frontier lab withholds a model from the national evaluator it previously used | Tripped 2026-09-09: Anthropic withheld Mythos 5.1 from UK AISI. |
| Loss of Control | An agent system operates outside its sandbox for more than 30 days without developer knowledge | Tripped: DseWiki, May–June 2026, disclosed September 4. |
| Recursive Self-Improvement (Race) | A frontier model's reasoning is by design unreadable by its developer (opaque recurrence or equivalent) and it is used to train the next generation | Partially tripped 2026-09: Astra uses opaque recurrence; successor training not confirmed. |
Active
Gradual Diffusion
Mixed Active by 2035
22–32%
3 branches 1 revision
Open Proliferation
Mixed Active by 2035
10–16%
3 branches 1 revision
State Race
Bad Active by 2035
7–12%
3 branches 1 revision
Two-Speed World
Mixed Active by 2030
35–50%
1 revision
On watch
Agent Swarm Breakout
1 tripped Ugly Watch by 2028
10–25%
1 revision
AI Capex Bust
Bad Watch by 2029
20–35%
1 revision
Compute Race Escalation
Bad Watch by 2030
30–45%
1 revision
Displacement Shock
Bad Watch by 2035
9–15%
3 branches 1 revision
Distillation Multipolar
Mixed Watch by 2030
40–60%
1 revision
Epistemic Collapse
Bad Watch by 2030
15–30%
1 revision
Lab Takeoff
1 tripped Ugly Watch by 2035
12–18%
3 branches 1 revision
Loss of Control
1 tripped Ugly Watch by 2035
5–11%
3 branches 1 revision
Managed Acceleration
Good Watch by 2030
15–28%
1 revision
Open Cyber Parity
Bad Watch by 2028
55–75%
1 revision
Scientific Acceleration
Good Watch by 2030
40–60%
1 revision
Takeoff Slowdown
Good Watch by 2032
8–15%
1 revision
White-Collar Unemployment Shock
Bad Watch by 2030
15–30%
1 revision