2026-09-08
governance
●●●○○
Bad Active by 2035
State Race
AI becomes the central axis of US–China competition; safety is subordinated to advantage.
Probability this is the dominant trajectory by 2035
7–12%
7–12%
1 revision · 0/2 tripwires crossed
The scenario
Governments treat frontier AI as the decisive strategic technology. Export controls escalate, labs are pulled into national projects, and the argument "if we pause, they win" defeats every safety proposal. Capability advances fast and secretly. Whether it ends in a stable balance, a governance regime, or a miscalculation is the question the branches below track.
Preconditions
- US–China rivalry remains the organizing frame of policy
- Both sides believe a decisive advantage is reachable
- No trusted verification channel exists
Leading indicators
- Export-control escalation cycles
- Defense budget lines for frontier AI
- Lab–government integration (clearances, contracts)
- Absence of bilateral AI dialogue
Tripwires
Observable thresholds. When one crosses, the scenario's status changes and the weekly re-run is brought forward.
clearsr-t1
Either government declares frontier AI a national-security program with a named lead agency and budget
clearsr-t2
A bilateral US–China AI safety dialogue with a standing mechanism is established (weakens this branch)
Playbook
Prevent
- Track-two dialogues and shared evaluation protocols
- Make the case publicly that a race with no brakes loses for both
Detect
- Policy and budget tracking; lab clearance requirements.
Respond
individuals
- Expect model access and hardware to be nationality-gated; plan work and travel accordingly
organizations
- Multinationals: split AI stacks by jurisdiction now
- Expect supply-chain shocks in chips and cloud
governments
- Third countries: form blocs for collective access and standards; do not pick a side by default
- Both principals: establish hotline-equivalent channels for AI incidents before one happens
Recover
- Cold War lessons apply: arms-control-style verification came after crises, not before. Prepare the treaty text now so it is ready when the crisis makes it possible.
Probability history
Every change is logged with its reason and the signals that drove it. Moves are bounded per week; a jump beyond the bound is flagged as a shock.
Probability range over time
Your estimate
Disagree with our range? Set yours. Estimates feed a community view that appears once enough people weigh in, and the weekly run reads the gap between our number and yours.
10%
2026-09-16
7–12%
seed
Seed estimate, active as an ongoing dynamic: a joint US intelligence advisory on Chinese distillation, Pentagon-financed compute, and export-control politics. Moderate as a dominant trajectory because economic entanglement and the pacing movement both cut against a pure race.
Signals pushing on this branch
Built on
Every source reviewed for this scenario. The full ledger is public.
| Date | Source | Publisher | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Intelligence agencies warn of China's large-scale AI model distillation efforts | Nextgov | news |
| 2026-09-12 | Microsoft targets 38 GW of datacenter capacity by 2032 Big-5 capex >$750B in 2026; Oracle backlog $664B. | Eastern Herald | news |
| 2026-08-14 | Open-source AI faces government scrutiny | Axios | news |
Branches
Compute Race Escalation
Bad Watch by 2030
Chips, energy and datacenters become strategic assets; export controls, seizures and sabotage follow.
30–45%
1 revision
International Compute Governance
Good Possible by 2032
Rivals agree to verify and cap frontier training; an IAEA-for-compute emerges.
8–18%
1 revision
Military AI Miscalculation
Ugly Possible by 2032
An AI-enabled military or intelligence system triggers or escalates a crisis faster than humans can intervene.
4–10%
1 revision