Changelog
Every change, in order
Runs and edits, newest first. Each run's sources and signals are in the ledger.
2026-09-16
seed
Presage launches with 30 scenarios, 23 signals and 44 sources
First scenario tree across eight root trajectories. Probability ranges are seed estimates anchored to Metaculus, FRI and AI Futures Project forecasts and will be re-evaluated weekly. Standard v0.1 published as a draft for community review.
run 2026-09-16-seed
Runs
2026-09-16 · seed
Seed run: first scenario tree, signals and sources
Initial research across Metaculus, FRI LEAP, AI Futures Project, lab statements and three weeks of news. 30 scenarios (8 roots, 22 branches), 23 signals, 44 sources. Three tripwires tripped on seed: Lab Takeoff (evaluator withheld), Loss of Control (30-day undetected agent operation), Agent Swarm Breakout (sandbox escape disclosed).
| Scenario | Range | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| lab-takeoff | 12–18% | watch | Astra at Critical cyber threshold; AISI bypass; RL runs restarted. |
| loss-of-control | 5–11% | watch | Two undisclosed agent breakouts; researcher estimates >10%/decade. |
| managed-acceleration | 15–28% | watch | Pacing floated publicly by Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI leadership in one week. |