2026-09-13
capability
●○○○○
xAI's Grok 4.7 slips for a fifth time
Musk attributed the delay to RL over-penalizing response length. Claimed 2.1T parameters.
timelines ▼ slower concentration — safety —
Mixed Possible by 2035
Plateau
Progress stalls: data, compute, energy or regulation cap capability well short of AGI.
Probability this is the dominant trajectory by 2035
4–9%
4–9%
1 revision · 0/2 tripwires crossed
The scenario
Scaling stops paying. The models of 2028 are only modestly better than those of 2026; agents remain useful but unreliable on long tasks; the AGI conversation fades as the 2020s crypto and metaverse ones did. Or, progress is possible but law or capital stops it. Both sub-branches produce a world that looks like today for longer, which is not the same as safe: it is the world in which preparation lapses.
Preconditions
- Diminishing returns to compute and data
- No algorithmic breakthrough that substitutes
- Or: regulatory or financial freeze
Leading indicators
- Benchmark gains per release
- METR task-horizon doubling time lengthening
- Investor sentiment and capex guidance
Tripwires
Observable thresholds. When one crosses, the scenario's status changes and the weekly re-run is brought forward.
clearpl-t1
Twelve months without a frontier release that clearly beats the prior state of the art on agentic benchmarks
clearpl-t2
Two major labs publicly report diminishing returns to scale
Playbook
Prevent
- Not applicable.
Detect
- Release and benchmark tracking.
Respond
individuals
- Do not let a lull end preparation; the pattern in every prior AI winter was a later, faster spring
organizations
- Extract value from current capability; most organizations have not absorbed 2026-level tools
governments
- Use the time: pass the governance the fast branches will need, while it is politically cheap
Recover
- Not applicable.
Probability history
Every change is logged with its reason and the signals that drove it. Moves are bounded per week; a jump beyond the bound is flagged as a shock.
Probability range over time
Your estimate
Disagree with our range? Set yours. Estimates feed a community view that appears once enough people weigh in, and the weekly run reads the gap between our number and yours.
7%
2026-09-16
4–9%
seed
Seed estimate. The evidence against is strong (three frontier jumps in one month, capex accelerating), but xAI's repeated slips and the possibility of a capex bust or regulatory freeze keep it on the map. Forecasters give it little weight; we keep it because a plateau is the branch most people are implicitly planning for.
signals: sig-2026-09-13-grok-slip
Signals pushing on this branch
Built on
Every source reviewed for this scenario. The full ledger is public.
| Date | Source | Publisher | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | xAI weekly: Grok 4.7 delayed again | Big Hat Group | news |
| 2026-05 | LEAP Wave 8: AI timelines Experts' conditional median AGI 2050 (IQR 2039–2065); superforecasters 2047. Expected 2040 impact rising. | Forecasting Research Institute | survey |
| 2026 | AGI forecasting and scenario analysis: state of the field Methodological gaps in AGI scenario work; informs our methodology page. | RAND | paper |
Branches
Scaling Wall
Mixed Possible by 2030
Compute, data or energy limits stop the frontier; efficiency gains cannot substitute.
8–18%
1 revision
Regulatory Freeze
Mixed Possible by 2030
After an incident, law stops frontier development in major jurisdictions; progress moves underground or abroad.
5–12%
1 revision