Presage
Scenarios/Plateau/Scaling Wall
Mixed Possible by 2030

Scaling Wall

Compute, data or energy limits stop the frontier; efficiency gains cannot substitute.

Probability this branch occurs by 2030
8–18%
8–18%
1 revision · 0/2 tripwires crossed

The scenario

The next 10x in compute cannot be built (grid, chips, capital) or does not deliver (data exhaustion, RL instability). Progress continues through efficiency and product work, but the frontier stalls. The world gets time it did not expect.

Preconditions

  • Physical or financial ceiling on compute
  • Returns to scale falling
  • No substitute (synthetic data, new architectures) at scale

Leading indicators

  • Cost per capability point
  • Energy allocation to datacenters vs approved builds
  • Training-run failure reports

Tripwires

Observable thresholds. When one crosses, the scenario's status changes and the weekly re-run is brought forward.

clearsw-t1
Two consecutive frontier training runs at record scale fail to beat the prior generation
clearsw-t2
Grid or chip constraints publicly cited as delaying a flagship model by more than a year

Playbook

Prevent
  • Not applicable.
Detect
  • Track compute economics.
Respond

individuals

  • Same as Plateau: use the time.

organizations

  • Efficiency and integration become the competition; small models and fine-tuning matter more

governments

  • Energy policy decides whether the wall is temporary
Recover
  • Not applicable.

Probability history

Every change is logged with its reason and the signals that drove it. Moves are bounded per week; a jump beyond the bound is flagged as a shock.

Probability range over time
Your estimate

Disagree with our range? Set yours. Estimates feed a community view that appears once enough people weigh in, and the weekly run reads the gap between our number and yours.

13%
2026-09-16
8–18%
seed

Seed estimate. Compute buildout is accelerating (38 GW targets), which cuts against; energy and HBM constraints and xAI's training difficulties cut for.

signals: sig-2026-09-12-microsoft-38gw, sig-2026-09-13-grok-slip

Signals pushing on this branch

2026-09-12
compute
●●●○○

Microsoft targets 38 GW of datacenter capacity by 2032; big-5 capex above $750B in 2026

Oracle backlog $664B (about half OpenAI); GPU utilization near 98%; Pentagon-backed loan to Fluidstack.

timelines ▲ faster concentration ▲ closed safety —
Eastern Herald · ledger

Built on

Every source reviewed for this scenario. The full ledger is public.

DateSourcePublisherType
2026-09-12Microsoft targets 38 GW of datacenter capacity by 2032
Big-5 capex >$750B in 2026; Oracle backlog $664B.
Eastern Heraldnews
2026-09-13xAI weekly: Grok 4.7 delayed againBig Hat Groupnews