Presage
Scenarios/Gradual Diffusion/Regulated Diffusion
Mixed Possible by 2030

Regulated Diffusion

Binding law arrives: duty of care, licensing, release blocking. Compliance slows and shapes deployment.

Probability this branch occurs by 2030
20–35%
20–35%
1 revision · 0/2 tripwires crossed

The scenario

Legislatures catch up. A US federal duty-of-care law with release-blocking authority passes in 2027, the EU high-risk regime lands in 2027–28, and the UK legislates after AISI is bypassed once too often. Compliance costs consolidate the frontier further but slow deployment in regulated sectors by one to three years. The brake works, unevenly: it bites in healthcare, finance and critical infrastructure, and barely touches consumer agents.

Preconditions

  • Federal frontier legislation passes in at least one of US, UK
  • EU Annex III obligations take effect without further deferral
  • Courts uphold release-blocking authority

Leading indicators

  • Bill moves from draft to committee vote
  • Labs delay a release citing regulatory review
  • Compliance headcount at frontier labs grows faster than research headcount

Tripwires

Observable thresholds. When one crosses, the scenario's status changes and the weekly re-run is brought forward.

clearrd-t1
A frontier bill passes either chamber of the US Congress
clearrd-t2
A government formally blocks or delays a frontier model release

Playbook

Prevent
  • Not applicable as a whole; the risk to prevent is regulation that entrenches incumbents without adding safety.
Detect
  • Track legislative calendars in US, EU, UK, and lab compliance disclosures.
Respond

individuals

  • If you work in a regulated sector, expect a lag between what tools can do and what you are allowed to use; plan careers on the allowed timeline

organizations

  • Build a compliance-by-design pipeline now: model inventory, risk classification, audit trail; it is cheaper before the law names it
  • Map which of your AI uses fall under high-risk categories

governments

  • Pair duty-of-care rules with funded testing capacity, or the rules will be gamed
  • Write preemption narrowly so states can still act on harms the federal law misses
Recover
  • If regulation over-shoots and freezes beneficial deployment, the Regulatory Freeze playbook applies.

Probability history

Every change is logged with its reason and the signals that drove it. Moves are bounded per week; a jump beyond the bound is flagged as a shock.

Probability range over time
Your estimate

Disagree with our range? Set yours. Estimates feed a community view that appears once enough people weigh in, and the weekly run reads the gap between our number and yours.

28%
2026-09-16
20–35%
seed

Seed estimate. A US Senate frontier bill exists in draft with bipartisan sponsors, OpenAI is asking the UK to legislate, and the EU Act is in force but deferred. Wide range because US passage before the midterms is unlikely and the EU has just loosened its own timeline.

signals: sig-2026-09-14-senate-frontier-bill, sig-2026-08-02-eu-ai-act, sig-2026-09-15-openai-uk

Signals pushing on this branch

2026-09-15
governance
●●○○○

Treasury Secretary Bessent: no liability exemptions for AI labs; supports domestic open source

Follows an August administration stance that frontier open models will need government collaboration, with an October deadline for standardized testing methods.

timelines — concentration ▼ open safety —
llm-stats · Axios · ledger
2026-09-15
governance
●○○○○

Senator Kennedy to introduce an industry-controlled AI kill-switch bill

No cosponsors; government-controlled versions expected to face a veto.

timelines — concentration — safety ▲ safer
JoeMyGod · ledger
2026-09-15
governance
●○○○○

OpenAI urges the UK to legislate binding frontier-lab rules

The UK has no AI bill; AISI testing remains voluntary.

timelines — concentration — safety ▲ safer
ResultSense · ledger
2026-09-14
governance
●●○○○

Thune/Cruz/Klobuchar draft frontier bill: duty of care and federal power to block unsafe releases

Includes state preemption on CBRN risks; stalled on who conducts testing; only a few Senate weeks before the November midterms.

timelines ▼ slower concentration ▲ closed safety ▲ safer
TNW / Reuters · ledger
2026-08-02
governance
●●○○○

EU AI Act transparency duties apply; high-risk obligations deferred to late 2027 and 2028

The Digital Omnibus pushed Annex III to December 2027 and Annex I to August 2028, loosening the near-term compliance brake.

timelines ▲ faster concentration — safety ▼ riskier
Certivo · ledger

Built on

Every source reviewed for this scenario. The full ledger is public.

DateSourcePublisherType
2026-09Senate frontier AI bill: duty of care, power to block unsafe releases, state preemptionTNW / Reutersnews
2026-08EU AI Act August 2026: what applies after the Digital Omnibus
Art. 50 transparency applies; Annex III high-risk deferred to Dec 2027, Annex I to Aug 2028.
Certivoanalysis
2026-09-15OpenAI urges UK to legislate binding frontier-lab rulesResultSensenews
2026-09-09Forecasts after the Hugging Face incident, OpenAI breach, and cyberattack questions
Open-weight matches Mythos cyber benchmark by Jul 2027: 95%. Another sandbox escape by Jan 2027: 50%. AI hacks third party: 41%. Weight exfiltration confirmed: 7%. Kill-switch bill passes both houses by Sept 2027: 24%.
Metaculusforecast