Presage
Scenarios/Abundance/Broad Prosperity
Good Possible by 2035

Broad Prosperity

Productivity gains reach median households through competition, ownership or transfers.

Probability this branch occurs by 2035
10–25%
10–25%
1 revision · 0/2 tripwires crossed

The scenario

The gains from AI show up in median incomes, lower costs of essentials and shorter work weeks, not only in asset prices. It happens through some mix of price competition among many providers, broad ownership of AI capital, and explicit transfers. No current policy trajectory delivers it automatically.

Preconditions

  • Plural, competitive AI supply
  • Distribution mechanism enacted
  • Political will sustained through a displacement period

Leading indicators

  • Median real income
  • Cost of essentials (housing, health, energy, education)
  • Distribution of AI-related capital income

Tripwires

Observable thresholds. When one crosses, the scenario's status changes and the weekly re-run is brought forward.

clearbp-t1
A G7 country enacts an AI dividend, sovereign fund or broad ownership mechanism
clearbp-t2
Median real income growth exceeds 3% for two consecutive years alongside falling labor share (gains reaching households through non-wage channels)

Playbook

Prevent
  • Not applicable.
Detect
  • Distributional tracking.
Respond

individuals

  • Own a share of what is producing the gains: broad index exposure, employee equity, cooperatives

organizations

  • Profit-sharing and equity for staff are the social licence for AI adoption

governments

  • Enact the mechanism before the gains concentrate; Alaska's dividend and Norway's fund are working templates
Recover
  • Not applicable.
Steering signals · what moves probability toward this branch
  • Competition policy
  • Ownership mechanisms
  • Public compute and open models

Probability history

Every change is logged with its reason and the signals that drove it. Moves are bounded per week; a jump beyond the bound is flagged as a shock.

Probability range over time
Your estimate

Disagree with our range? Set yours. Estimates feed a community view that appears once enough people weigh in, and the weekly run reads the gap between our number and yours.

18%
2026-09-16
10–25%
seed

Seed estimate. The distributional indicators currently point the other way (labor share falling, young workers displaced), so this sits well below Scientific Acceleration despite depending on it.

signals: sig-2026-09-10-anthropic-economy

Built on

Every source reviewed for this scenario. The full ledger is public.

DateSourcePublisherType
2026-09-10Anthropic 2030 economy model: GDP and jobs scenarios
Unemployment 4.6% to ~12% across scenarios; labor share 59% → 45%; young workers in AI-exposed jobs ~19% below peers.
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